Innova Castle
Market Stress
Coming Soon

Finance Stress

Equity indices · Commodities

Structural stress in equity markets and commodities detected before it shows in price.

Validation

1985–2025
Data validated
4 out of 4
Major crises detected
34 days
Early warning - 2008 collapse
Zero
Free parameters

Coverage

S&P 500Nasdaq 100WTI CrudeGold

How it works

What Finance Stress detects

1

Monitors the statistical distribution of asset returns and detects when it begins losing its stable shape, a signal that historically precedes major dislocations.

2

Unlike VaR or GARCH models, it is not reactive. It does not wait for volatility to spike. It detects the structural change that causes the spike.

3

Works across equity indices and commodities without recalibration between assets or time periods.

Who it's for

Built for regulated, high-stakes environments.

  • Risk managers at financial institutions
  • Quantitative funds and portfolio managers
  • Compliance teams under MiFID II
  • Macro traders and systematic strategies

Our principles

The same foundation across every solution

100% White-Box

Every result is fully transparent and auditable. Every signal can be justified to a regulator.

Physics-Based

Grounded in statistical physics and stochastic analysis. Structural patterns, not empirical correlations.

Zero Recalibration

Works across assets and time periods without constant retuning or manual adjustment.

Compliance-Ready

Compatible with MiFID II, EU AI Act, Basel III and MGA from day one.

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Interested in Finance Stress?

We are working towards the full release of our solutions. If you want to know more or discuss a pilot, start a conversation.